• Descriptive
    • Moments
    • Concentration
    • Central Tendency
    • Variability
    • Stem-and-Leaf Plot
    • Histogram & Frequency Table
    • Data Quality Forensics
    • Conditional EDA
    • Quantiles
    • Kernel Density Estimation
    • Normal QQ Plot
    • Bootstrap Plot

    • Multivariate Descriptive Statistics
  • Distributions
    • Binomial Probabilities
    • Geometric Probabilities
    • Negative Binomial Probabilities
    • Hypergeometric Probabilities
    • Multinomial Probabilities
    • Dirichlet
    • Poisson Probabilities

    • Exponential
    • Gamma
    • Erlang
    • Weibull
    • Rayleigh
    • Maxwell-Boltzmann
    • Lognormal
    • Pareto
    • Inverse Gamma
    • Inverse Chi-Square

    • Beta
    • Power
    • Beta Prime (Inv. Beta)
    • Triangular

    • Normal (area)
    • Logistic
    • Laplace
    • Cauchy (standard)
    • Cauchy (location-scale)
    • Gumbel
    • Fréchet
    • Generalized Extreme Value

    • Normal RNG
    • ML Fitting
    • Tukey Lambda PPCC
    • Box-Cox Normality Plot
    • Noncentral t
    • Noncentral F
    • Sample Correlation r

    • Empirical Tests
  • Hypotheses
    • Theoretical Aspects of Hypothesis Testing
    • Bayesian Inference
    • Minimum Sample Size

    • Empirical Tests
    • Multivariate (pair-wise) Testing
  • Models
    • Manual Model Building
    • Guided Model Building
  • Time Series
    • Time Series Plot
    • Decomposition
    • Exponential Smoothing

    • Blocked Bootstrap Plot
    • Mean Plot
    • (P)ACF
    • VRM
    • Standard Deviation-Mean Plot
    • Spectral Analysis
    • ARIMA

    • Cross Correlation Function
    • Granger Causality
  1. Descriptive Statistics & Exploratory Data Analysis
  2. 86  Equi-distant Time Series
  • Preface
  • Getting Started
    • 1  Introduction
    • 2  Why Do We Need Innovative Technology?
    • 3  Basic Definitions
    • 4  The Big Picture: Why We Analyze Data
  • Introduction to Probability
    • 5  Definitions of Probability
    • 6  Jeffreys’ axiom system
    • 7  Bayes’ Theorem
    • 8  Sensitivity and Specificity
    • 9  Naive Bayes Classifier
    • 10  Law of Large Numbers

    • 11  Problems
  • Probability Distributions
    • 12  Bernoulli Distribution
    • 13  Binomial Distribution
    • 14  Geometric Distribution
    • 15  Negative Binomial Distribution
    • 16  Hypergeometric Distribution
    • 17  Multinomial Distribution
    • 18  Poisson Distribution

    • 19  Uniform Distribution (Rectangular Distribution)
    • 20  Normal Distribution (Gaussian Distribution)
    • 21  Gaussian Naive Bayes Classifier
    • 22  Chi Distribution
    • 23  Chi-squared Distribution (1 parameter)
    • 24  Chi-squared Distribution (2 parameters)
    • 25  Student t-Distribution
    • 26  Fisher F-Distribution
    • 27  Exponential Distribution
    • 28  Lognormal Distribution
    • 29  Gamma Distribution
    • 30  Beta Distribution
    • 31  Weibull Distribution
    • 32  Pareto Distribution
    • 33  Inverse Gamma Distribution
    • 34  Rayleigh Distribution
    • 35  Erlang Distribution
    • 36  Logistic Distribution
    • 37  Laplace Distribution
    • 38  Gumbel Distribution
    • 39  Cauchy Distribution
    • 40  Triangular Distribution
    • 41  Power Distribution
    • 42  Beta Prime Distribution
    • 43  Sample Correlation Distribution
    • 44  Dirichlet Distribution
    • 45  Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution
    • 46  Frechet Distribution
    • 47  Noncentral t Distribution
    • 48  Noncentral F Distribution
    • 49  Inverse Chi-Squared Distribution
    • 50  Maxwell-Boltzmann Distribution
    • 51  Distribution Relationship Map

    • 52  Problems
  • Descriptive Statistics & Exploratory Data Analysis
    • 53  Types of Data
    • 54  Datasheets

    • 55  Frequency Plot (Bar Plot)
    • 56  Frequency Table
    • 57  Contingency Table
    • 58  Binomial Classification Metrics
    • 59  Confusion Matrix
    • 60  ROC Analysis

    • 61  Stem-and-Leaf Plot
    • 62  Histogram
    • 63  Data Quality Forensics
    • 64  Quantiles
    • 65  Central Tendency
    • 66  Variability
    • 67  Skewness & Kurtosis
    • 68  Concentration
    • 69  Notched Boxplot
    • 70  Scatterplot
    • 71  Pearson Correlation
    • 72  Rank Correlation
    • 73  Partial Pearson Correlation
    • 74  Simple Linear Regression
    • 75  Moments
    • 76  Quantile-Quantile Plot (QQ Plot)
    • 77  Normal Probability Plot
    • 78  Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient Plot (PPCC Plot)
    • 79  Box-Cox Normality Plot
    • 80  Kernel Density Estimation
    • 81  Bivariate Kernel Density Plot
    • 82  Conditional EDA: Panel Diagnostics
    • 83  Bootstrap Plot (Central Tendency)
    • 84  Survey Scores Rank Order Comparison
    • 85  Cronbach Alpha

    • 86  Equi-distant Time Series
    • 87  Time Series Plot (Run Sequence Plot)
    • 88  Mean Plot
    • 89  Blocked Bootstrap Plot (Central Tendency)
    • 90  Standard Deviation-Mean Plot
    • 91  Variance Reduction Matrix
    • 92  (Partial) Autocorrelation Function
    • 93  Periodogram & Cumulative Periodogram

    • 94  Problems
  • Hypothesis Testing
    • 95  Normal Distributions revisited
    • 96  The Population
    • 97  The Sample
    • 98  The One-Sided Hypothesis Test
    • 99  The Two-Sided Hypothesis Test
    • 100  When to use a one-sided or two-sided test?
    • 101  What if \(\sigma\) is unknown?
    • 102  The Central Limit Theorem (revisited)
    • 103  Statistical Test of the Population Mean with known Variance
    • 104  Statistical Test of the Population Mean with unknown Variance
    • 105  Statistical Test of the Variance
    • 106  Statistical Test of the Population Proportion
    • 107  Statistical Test of the Standard Deviation \(\sigma\)
    • 108  Statistical Test of the difference between Means -- Independent/Unpaired Samples
    • 109  Statistical Test of the difference between Means -- Dependent/Paired Samples
    • 110  Statistical Test of the difference between Variances -- Independent/Unpaired Samples

    • 111  Hypothesis Testing for Research Purposes
    • 112  Decision Thresholds, Alpha, and Confidence Levels
    • 113  Bayesian Inference for Decision-Making
    • 114  One Sample t-Test
    • 115  Skewness & Kurtosis Tests
    • 116  Paired Two Sample t-Test
    • 117  Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test
    • 118  Unpaired Two Sample t-Test
    • 119  Unpaired Two Sample Welch Test
    • 120  Two One-Sided Tests (TOST) for Equivalence
    • 121  Mann-Whitney U test (Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)
    • 122  Bayesian Two Sample Test
    • 123  Median Test based on Notched Boxplots
    • 124  Chi-Squared Tests for Count Data
    • 125  Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
    • 126  One Way Analysis of Variance (1-way ANOVA)
    • 127  Kruskal-Wallis Test
    • 128  Two Way Analysis of Variance (2-way ANOVA)
    • 129  Repeated Measures ANOVA
    • 130  Friedman Test
    • 131  Testing Correlations
    • 132  A Note on Causality

    • 133  Problems
  • Regression Models
    • 134  Simple Linear Regression Model (SLRM)
    • 135  Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLRM)
    • 136  Logistic Regression
    • 137  Generalized Linear Models
    • 138  Multinomial and Ordinal Logistic Regression
    • 139  Cox Proportional Hazards Regression
    • 140  Conditional Inference Trees
    • 141  Leaf Diagnostics for Conditional Inference Trees
    • 142  Conditional Random Forests
    • 143  Hypothesis Testing with Linear Regression Models (from a Practical Point of View)

    • 144  Problems
  • Introduction to Time Series Analysis
    • 145  Case: the Market of Health and Personal Care Products
    • 146  Decomposition of Time Series
    • 147  Ad hoc Forecasting of Time Series
  • Box-Jenkins Analysis
    • 148  Introduction to Box-Jenkins Analysis
    • 149  Theoretical Concepts
    • 150  Stationarity
    • 151  Identifying ARMA parameters
    • 152  Estimating ARMA Parameters and Residual Diagnostics
    • 153  Forecasting with ARIMA models
    • 154  Intervention Analysis
    • 155  Cross-Correlation Function
    • 156  Transfer Function Noise Models
    • 157  General-to-Specific Modeling
  • Model Building Strategies
    • 158  Introduction to Model Building Strategies
    • 159  Manual Model Building
    • 160  Model Validation
    • 161  Regularization Methods
    • 162  Hyperparameter Optimization Strategies
    • 163  Guided Model Building in Practice
    • 164  Diagnostics, Revision, and Guided Forecasting
    • 165  Leakage, Target Encoding, and Robust Regression
  • References
  • Appendices
    • Appendices
    • A  Method Selection Guide
    • B  Presentations and Teaching Materials
    • C  R Language Concepts for Statistical Computing
    • D  Matrix Algebra
    • E  Standard Normal Table (Gaussian Table)
    • F  Critical values of Student’s \(t\) distribution with \(\nu\) degrees of freedom
    • G  Upper-tail critical values of the \(\chi^2\)-distribution with \(\nu\) degrees of freedom
    • H  Lower-tail critical values of the \(\chi^2\)-distribution with \(\nu\) degrees of freedom

Table of contents

  • 86.1 Example
  1. Descriptive Statistics & Exploratory Data Analysis
  2. 86  Equi-distant Time Series

86  Equi-distant Time Series

Within the context of this handbook a time series is defined as a series of chronologically ordered values about some variable of interest that have been observed at regular time intervals. The term “equi-distant” does not imply that the time intervals between observations is exactly equal. Rather it is assumed that we can treat the time intervals as if they were equal because this allows us to employ easier types of analysis.

Here are two examples of non-equi-distant time series:

  • quotes and trades on the stock market
  • tax changes imposed by the Government

Here are a few examples of equi-distant time series:

  • monthly sales data (even if the number of working days is not the same for every month)
  • daily returns on the stock market (even if there are no trades on holidays and during the weekend)
  • monthly tax levels (sampled at the end of month - even if taxes change the first day of the month)
  • monthly (total) number of observed sparrow eggs in a local community (even if many months contain zeroes)

Non-equi-distant time series can be converted to equi-distant time series by means of:

  • summing (over regular time intervals)
  • averaging (over regular time intervals)
  • selection (such as an opening or closing price)
  • interpolation (of missing periods)

In any case it is important to understand that the so-called “sampling frequency” causes artifacts in time series that should be treated appropriately. For instance, some business cycles or seasonal effects may be artificially caused by the process that converts a non-equi-distant into an equi-distant time series. In addition, the diagnostic tools that are used to investigate the dynamical properties of time series are (to some extent) artifacts of the sampling frequency. The statistical methods that employ non-equal time intervals are beyond the scope of this document.

86.1 Example

Suppose a website records each transaction with an irregular timestamp. If we aggregate all transactions by month (sum of sales or average price per month), we obtain an equi-distant monthly time series. This allows us to use the diagnostics in Section 87.5, Section 88.6, and Section 92.6.

87  Time Series Plot (Run Sequence Plot)

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